General

The Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) organised a round-table discussion on “Post-Dalai Lama Situation and the Middle Path” on 25 January, 2010 at the CLAWS campus. The speaker was Col Virendra Verma (Retd), Visiting Fellow at the Institute of Chinese Studies, Delhi. The round-table was attended by a select gathering of members from the strategic community and the CLAWS faculty.

Opening Remarks

Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd), Director CLAWS, stated in his opening remarks that China has failed to integrate Tibet with the rest of the Chinese mainland. China believes that the Tibet factor is crucial towards normalisation of ties between India and China and views the Dalai Lama’s presence in India with concern. India has however always maintained that the Dalai Lama has been India’s guest since a few decades. The Han Chinese population surge in Tibet has been a source of concern.

Col Virendra Verma (Retd)

The speaker apprised the audience of his December 2008 and August 2009 visit to China where he made a presentation on ‘Post-Dalai Lama Situation and the Middle Path’ and the concept of ‘Greater Tibet’ at the Ethnic Minority Groups Development Research Institute of the Development Research Centre of State Council in Beijing.

China states that it sincerely wishes to resolve the Tibet issue and views the issue through the prism of the concerns of national unity and nationalism especially of the vast majority of Han population along with the Marxist concept of autonomy. The Chinese leadership looking at the Tibetan issue beyond the Dalai Lama’s era is in keeping with their strong ethos of preparing for the future. As a religious and political leader of six million Tibetans both in and outside Tibet, the Dalai Lama’s continuous influence in the Tibetan movement and western societies is undeniable. The fact that the Dalai Lama has exercised a powerful influence for non-violence should not be lost sight of.

Efforts are being made by Tibetans and China, in their own ways, to manage the post Dalai Lama situation. China promulgated the new reincarnation law in September 2007 which required approval of Central Government for ‘those incarnations whose impact on the Buddhist world is very large.’ In response, the Dalai Lama proposed a possibility to forgo his rebirth or to be reborn while still alive instead of being reborn as a small boy after his death. It is certain that after the 14th Dalai Lama is no more then there would be bitter rival searches for the reincarnate. According to Wang Lixiong, a mainland Chinese author following Tibetan issues, “There will definitely be rioting, it will be a lot bigger in scale.” Wide spread riots that took place in the Tibetan plateau and their intensity clearly indicate the Tibetan anger and resentment against the Chinese.

In the talks that have taken place between the representatives of the Dalai Lama and the PRC, the perception of Tibetans is that there has been no progress on the substantive issue of autonomy. In the round of talks held in October 2008, the representatives submitted a ‘Memorandum on Genuine Autonomy for the Tibetan People’ that explains in greater length the autonomy which was for the first time proposed by the Dalai Lama at the European Parliament at Strasbourg France on June 16, 1988. Significantly, it speaks about self-governance, Greater Tibet, migration of the Han population and the power to legislate. The memo identifies the basic needs of the Tibetans as the subject matters of self governance— including language, culture, religion, education, environment protection and utilization of natural resources, economic development and trade, public health, public security, regulation on population migration, cultural, educational and religious exchanges with other countries.

There are apprehensions that major demographic changes resulting from Han Chinese migration will have the effect of assimilating rather than integrating the Tibetan nationality into the Han nationality and gradually extinguish the distinct culture and identity of the Tibetan nationality. Minorities control major geographical area in China with only seven per cent of the population.

Discussion and Conclusion

The Tibetan Diaspora is integrating globally for the Tibetan cause. After the passing away of the Dalai Lama, there is a likelihood of massive rioting breaking out. The Tibetan youth is disillusioned with the Chinese leadership and may not necessarily remain non-violent and peaceful post the Dalai Lama. The Chinese view on autonomy is derived from Marxist principles where religious and cultural freedom has limited scope. Lhasa has offered better economic opportunities which in turn has attracted substantial amount of Han Chinese populace to the Tibetan region. China’s infrastructure development in this region has added to this influx and also holds grave security implications for India. 
 
(Report prepared by Dr. Monika Chansoria, Research Fellow, CLAWS)